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阿尼玛卿山多次冰川滑塌链式灾害过程梳理与展望

王忠彦,张太刚,王伟财

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王忠彦, 张太刚, 王伟财. 阿尼玛卿山多次冰川滑塌链式灾害过程梳理与展望[J]. 华体会外围 (自然科学版), 2022, 58(6): 950-962. doi: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2022056
引用本文: 王忠彦, 张太刚, 王伟财. 阿尼玛卿山多次冰川滑塌链式灾害过程梳理与展望[J]. 华体会外围 (自然科学版), 2022, 58(6): 950-962.doi:10.12202/j.0476-0301.2022056
WANG Zhongyan, ZHANG Taigang, WANG Weicai. Glacier detachment chain process in the Amney Machen Mountain[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2022, 58(6): 950-962. doi: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2022056
Citation: WANG Zhongyan, ZHANG Taigang, WANG Weicai. Glacier detachment chain process in the Amney Machen Mountain[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2022, 58(6): 950-962.doi:10.12202/j.0476-0301.2022056

阿尼玛卿山多次冰川滑塌链式灾害过程梳理与展望

doi:10.12202/j.0476-0301.2022056
基金项目:第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究资助项目(2019QZKK0201);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41771088)
详细信息
    通讯作者:

    王伟财(1984—),博士,研究员. 研究方向:冰湖溃决及防灾减灾策略. E-mail:weicaiwang@itpcas.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号:P343.6;X43

Glacier detachment chain process in the Amney Machen Mountain

  • 摘要:冰川滑塌是近年来涌现的一种新形式冰川灾害.21世纪以来,青藏高原地区发生10多起冰川滑塌事件,其中高原东北部阿尼玛卿山晓玛沟冰川分别在2004、2007、2016和2019年连续发生4次.利用多序列遥感影像和现有资料的整合统计对近35年来晓玛沟冰川形态、流速特征等进行分析,厘清了4次冰川滑塌事件发生的诱因以及潜在的隐患点.结果表明,4次冰川滑塌发生前期的冰川跃动或末端前进、冰川后缘冰-岩崩、异常高温降水、易于滑动产生的基岩性质等与冰川滑塌事件的发生密切相关.观察到冰川后缘陡坡区在2000—2011年间发生4次规模较大的冰-岩崩,为多次冰川滑塌的发生提供了物质和动力基础.未来几年内再次发生冰川滑塌的可能性极大.2019年冰川滑塌发生后,晓玛沟冰川再次向前滑动;近年来,冰川后缘新发育的不稳定斜坡冰裂隙发育明显增多;斜坡冰流速的变化与下部冰川稳定性之间存在内在联系,在冰川滑塌发生的相关年份斜坡冰流速明显较快.根据对阿尼玛卿山4次冰川滑塌诱因的分析以及新隐患点的判定,提出结合遥感影像和临近气象站点资料的便易手段,加强对晓玛沟内冰川形态和运动特征等的监测,以及时关注和预测未来灾害的发生.

  • 图 1研究区各要素分布

    a. 阿尼玛卿山冰川滑塌点位置;b. 最邻近国家气象台站玛沁站位置;c. 冰岩碎屑物在下游青龙沟的堆积面积变化、堰塞湖发育状况、冰川后缘冰-岩崩区深度分布(NASADEM-HMA)等.

    图 2玛沁站1961—2013年间气温降水变化

    图 3HMA、PALSAR和NASADEM这3款数字高程模型在晓玛-青龙沟断面上表现

    图 4晓玛沟冰川跃动,冰川后缘冰-岩崩,冰川滑塌以及堰塞湖溃决

    a~d. 发生于1988—1994年晓玛沟冰川跃动事件;e~f. 2004年冰川滑塌前夕观察到新的冰川跃动现象;g~h. 青龙河主河道堰塞湖溃决状况;i~l. 2004、2007、2016和2019年滑塌事件在下游青龙沟形成的沉积范围;m~p. 后缘陡坡区因冰崩而损失的冰川面积.

    图 51986年以来晓玛沟冰川面积与冰舌末端位置变化状况

    发生在沟内的冰川跃动、冰-岩崩和冰川滑塌事件时间段用不同颜色突出显示.

    图 64次冰川滑塌事件发生前1年的气温及降水状况

    a~b. 玛沁站的观测资料分别展示了2003年3月—2004年2月和2006年11月—2007年10月这一地区的逐日气温降水变化;c~d. ERA-Land再分析资料分别展示了2015年11月—2016年10月和2018年8月—2019年7月间的逐月气温降水变化.

    图 7冰川后缘冰-岩崩、冰裂隙发育状况

    a. 展示了2000—2001和2003—2004年产生的2次冰-岩崩脱离事件;b. 展示了冰岩碎屑在下方冰舌的堆积状况;c. 展示了2007和2010—2011年产生的2次冰-岩崩事件;d. 表示1964年晓玛沟冰川发育状况;e~f. 展示了冰川后缘陡坡区近3年来冰裂隙发育状况.

    图 8冰川后缘陡坡区3在2016—2021年间的冰川流速变化与较大冰裂隙发育状况

    表 1晓玛沟和青龙沟发生的冰川滑塌和堰塞湖溃决灾害事件统计

    序号 事件 时间 区域 脱离区
    面积/km2
    脱离区
    平均坡度/(°)
    脱离体积/
    106m3
    描述 诱因 来源
    1 冰川滑塌 2004-01-26
    —02-10
    积累区 0.207 22 21.5  碎屑物在沉积区堆积平均厚度约10 m,破坏了下游大量的草场.形成堰塞湖  冰川跃动,冰-岩崩,降水,基岩性质 本研究,[46]
    2 冰川滑塌 2007-10-08 积累区 0.139 16 6.54  碎屑物在沉积区堆积平均厚度约6 m.对下游的道路、涵洞造成破坏.形成堰塞湖  冰川跃动,冰-岩崩,高温降水,基岩性质 本研究,[46]
    3 冰川滑塌 2016-10-06 积累区 0.085 23 4.25  碎屑物在沉积区堆积平均厚度约5 m.形成堰塞湖  冰川跃动,冰-岩崩,高温(可能),基岩性质 本研究,[46]
    4 冰川滑塌 2019-07-09
    —07-14
    积累区 0.028 13 1.12  量级小,形成的碎屑流未对下方道路造成破坏  冰川跃动,冰-岩崩,降水(可能),基岩性质 本研究,[14]
    5 堰塞湖
    溃决
    2005-07-04 青龙沟 0.631 5.38  青龙沟主河道发育得最大的堰塞湖溃决,发生过程缓慢,7月5日溃决洪峰达到最大  坝体中的冰融化,水压力增大 本研究,[46]
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 2选取的可用遥感影像和数字高程模型

    序号 影像名称 采集时间 精度/m 应用
    1 KH-4A 1964-12-30 2.7 冰川边界提取
    2 Orbview-3 2005-06-21 1.0 冰崩信息提取
    3 Landsat4/5 TM 1986-10-31、1987-08-15、1988-02-07、1989-09-21、1990-06-20、1990-07-06、1991-09-11、1992-06-09、1993-08-31、1994-05-14、1994-11-06、1995-07-20、1997-08-10、1998-07-12、1999-07-31、2000-04-28、2001-07-04、2004-09-14、2006-09-20、2007-05-02、2007-09-23、2008-03-17、2009-08-11、2010-08-14、 30.0 冰川边界提取
    4 Landsat7 ETM+ 2002-08-16、2003-05-31、2004-01-26、2011-07-08 30.0 冰川边界提取
    5 Landsat8 OLI 2013-04-16、2014-07-24、2015-08-12 30.0 冰川边界提取
    6 ASTER 2000-10-04、2001-09-30、2002-12-13、2004-03-05、2004-09-13、2005-09-16、2006-03-27、2008-07-15、2012-09-12 15.0 冰川边界提取;冰崩信息提取
    7 Sentinel-2A/B 2016-07-30、2016-09-28、2017-08-04、2018-09-28、2019-04-26、2019-07-30、2019-08-29、2020-09-17、2021-09-07 10.0 冰川流速、边界提取
    8 HMA DEM 2015 8.0 冰崩信息提取
    9 PALSAR 2007-08-15 12.5 冰崩信息提取
    10 NASA 2000 30.0 冰崩信息提取
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 3晓玛沟发生的量级较高的冰-岩崩事件统计

    序号 时间 区域 脱离区
    面积/km2
    脱离区
    平均坡度/(°)
    脱离体积/
    106m3
    描述 诱因 来源
    1 2000-04—
    2001-07
    陡坡区1 0.107 29 2.24~6.34  在旧的不稳定的冰川后缘陡坡区1上,冰体裹挟下方岩体向下滑塌,最终碎屑物堆积在冰舌上端  地震,气候变化导致的斜坡稳定性降低 本研究,[49]
    2 2003-05—
    2004-01
    陡坡区2 0.023 36 0.82~1.85  在新的不稳定的冰川后缘陡坡区2上,冰体同下方基岩碎屑发生滑塌,最终堆积在冰舌上端  气候变化导致的斜坡稳定性降低 本研究,[49]
    3 2007-09-15—
    11-02
    陡坡区2 0.022 34 0.42~1.22  脱离区2下部进一步发生滑塌,此次事件可能是由多次小冰崩组合而成  气候变化导致的斜坡稳定性降低 本研究
    4 2010-08—
    2011-06
    陡坡区2 0.108 42 6.84~11.23  脱离区2上部进一步发生滑塌,碎屑物没有冲出沟谷,而是堆积在冰舌上端  气候变化导致的斜坡稳定性降低 本研究
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:2022-03-19
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