包文轩, 宫阿都, 徐澯, 李博艺, 黄智卿. 基于区域灾害系统论的广东省台风灾害风险评估——以“山竹”台风为例[J]. 华体会外围 (自然科学版), 2023, 59(1): 94-103. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2021263
引用本文: 包文轩, 宫阿都, 徐澯, 李博艺, 黄智卿. 基于区域灾害系统论的广东省台风灾害风险评估——以“山竹”台风为例[J]. 华体会外围 (自然科学版), 2023, 59(1): 94-103. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2021263
BAO Wenxuan, GONG Adu, XU Can, LI Boyi, HUANG Zhiqing. Typhoon disaster risk assessment in Guangdong province by regional disaster system theory:case of “Mangkhut”[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2023, 59(1): 94-103. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2021263
Citation: BAO Wenxuan, GONG Adu, XU Can, LI Boyi, HUANG Zhiqing. Typhoon disaster risk assessment in Guangdong province by regional disaster system theory:case of “Mangkhut”[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2023, 59(1): 94-103. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2021263

基于区域灾害系统论的广东省台风灾害风险评估以“山竹”台风为例

Typhoon disaster risk assessment in Guangdong province by regional disaster system theory:case of “Mangkhut”

  • 摘要: 本研究的主要目的是构建一种适用于广东省的台风灾害风险评估模型,从而能有针对性地对广东省发生台风灾害后的抗灾救灾、应急决策提供参考意见.本文在区域灾害系统论的指导下,综合了致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性3方面,构建了一套新的评估指标体系,并以加权综合法、层次分析法、自然间断点分级法构建了广东省台风灾害风险评估模型.最后以2018年第22号超强台风“山竹”为例,对广东省进行了台风灾害风险评估,并形成了1 km×1 km的综合风险区划图和评估分析结果.结果表明:1)该模型评估出的广东省“山竹”台风灾害中高风险地区与灾情报告相符合,具有较高的可靠性;2)广东省“山竹”台风灾害致灾因子危险性呈现出中东部沿海和中西部地区高,并逐渐向周围递减的分布;3)广东省台风灾害高孕灾环境敏感性地区主要集中在珠江三角洲地区以及粤东潮汕地区,这些地区地势平坦、河网密集、植被覆盖度低;4)广东省台风灾害高承灾体脆弱性地区主要集中在珠江三角洲地区、粤东潮汕地区、粤西茂湛地区,这些地区人口稠密、经济发达、耕地众多、城市化程度高;5)广东省“山竹”台风灾害综合风险呈现出中东部沿海和中西部地区高,并逐渐向周围递减的分布,其中高风险区主要包括阳江市、江门市、珠海市、深圳市、惠州市、汕尾市等.

     

    Abstract: The main purpose of this research is to construct a typhoon disaster risk assessment model suitable for Guangdong province, so as to provide targeted reference advice on disaster relief and emergency decision-making after the occurrence of typhoons.Under the guidance of regional disaster system theory, this paper comprehensively constructs a new evaluation indicators system from three aspects: the fatalness of disaster-inducing factors, sensitivity of disaster-formative environment, vulnerability of disaster-bearing body and constructs the Guangdong province typhoon disaster risk assessment model based on the weighted comprehensive evaluation method, the analytic hierarchy process and the natural breaks point classification method.And illustrated by the case of the super typhoon No. 22 in 2018 “Mangkhut” to conduct a typhoon disaster risk assessment in Guangdong province, and finally a comprehensive risk zoning map of 1 km×1 km spatial units and the results of evaluation and analysis will be formed. The result shows that: 1) The medium and high-risk areas evaluated by the model for the “Mangkhut” typhoon disaster in Guangdong province are consistent with the disaster report and have high reliability; 2) The fatalness of disaster-inducing factors of the “Mangkhut” typhoon disaster in Guangdong province are high in the central-eastern coastal and central-western regions, and gradually decrease to the surrounding areas; 3) The areas with high sensitivity of disaster-formative environment in Guangdong province typhoon disaster are concentrated in the Pearl River Delta area and the Chaoshan area in eastern Guangdong.These areas are the flat terrain, dense river network and low vegetation coverage; 4) The areas with high vulnerability of disaster-bearing body in Guangdong province typhoon disaster are concentrated in the Pearl River Delta area, the Chaoshan area in eastern Guangdong and the Maozhan area in western Guangdong.These areas are densely populated, economically developed, numerous arable land and highly urbanized; 5) The comprehensive risk of “Mangkhut” typhoon disaster in Guangdong province are high in the central-eastern coastal, central-western regions and gradually decrease to the surrounding areas.The highly risk areas mainly include Yangjiang city, Jiangmen city, Zhuhai city, Shenzhen city, Huizhou city, Shanwei city, etc.